Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,655
2 New Jersey 19,731
3 Rhode Island 16,038
4 Massachusetts 15,955
5 District of Columbia 14,852
6 Louisiana 14,053
7 Arizona 13,481
8 Connecticut 13,103
9 Delaware 12,454
10 Illinois 11,737
11 Maryland 11,571
12 Mississippi 10,382
13 Nebraska 10,307
14 Iowa 10,019
15 Florida 9,316
16 Alabama 8,964
17 South Carolina 8,710
18 Georgia 8,428
19 South Dakota 7,983
20 Arkansas 7,891
21 Utah 7,799
22 Virginia 7,702
23 Pennsylvania 7,374
24 Tennessee 7,374
25 Michigan 7,312
26 Nevada 7,310
27 Indiana 7,308
28 North Carolina 6,969
29 Texas 6,902
30 California 6,873
31 Minnesota 6,768
32 New Mexico 6,321
33 Wisconsin 5,968
34 Colorado 5,921
35 Kansas 5,591
36 North Dakota 5,019
37 Washington 4,920
38 Ohio 4,889
39 Idaho 4,364
40 New Hampshire 4,336
41 Oklahoma 4,025
42 Missouri 3,964
43 Kentucky 3,740
44 Wyoming 2,823
45 Maine 2,540
46 Puerto Rico 2,478
47 Oregon 2,427
48 Vermont 2,001
49 Alaska 1,874
50 West Virginia 1,860
51 Montana 1,134
52 Hawaii 709

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 486
2 Florida 481
3 South Carolina 333
4 Nevada 286
5 Louisiana 262
6 Alabama 261
7 Mississippi 238
8 Georgia 220
9 Idaho 207
10 Texas 205
11 Tennessee 204
12 California 197
13 Arkansas 192
14 Utah 160
15 North Carolina 145
16 Iowa 142
17 Delaware 135
18 Kansas 121
19 New Mexico 117
20 Oklahoma 117
21 Wisconsin 107
22 Ohio 85
23 Indiana 81
24 Nebraska 79
25 Virginia 78
26 Oregon 74
27 North Dakota 69
28 Missouri 67
29 Washington 67
30 Alaska 66
31 South Dakota 64
32 Illinois 61
33 Minnesota 54
34 West Virginia 52
35 Maryland 51
36 Wyoming 48
37 Colorado 44
38 Pennsylvania 44
39 District of Columbia 43
40 Montana 40
41 Michigan 39
42 New Jersey 39
43 New York 37
44 Puerto Rico 32
45 Massachusetts 30
46 Kentucky 25
47 Maine 21
48 New Hampshire 18
49 Hawaii 17
50 Rhode Island 15
51 Vermont 11
52 Connecticut 6

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,712
2 New York 1,639
3 Connecticut 1,215
4 Massachusetts 1,187
5 Rhode Island 906
6 District of Columbia 792
7 Louisiana 707
8 Michigan 623
9 Illinois 571
10 Maryland 536
11 Pennsylvania 530
12 Delaware 525
13 Indiana 400
14 Mississippi 373
15 Colorado 295
16 New Hampshire 280
17 Minnesota 267
18 Georgia 264
19 Arizona 251
20 Ohio 249
21 New Mexico 244
22 Iowa 228
23 Virginia 217
24 Alabama 205
25 Washington 178
26 Nevada 174
27 Florida 173
28 Missouri 173
29 California 161
30 South Carolina 159
31 Nebraska 147
32 Wisconsin 138
33 Kentucky 136
34 North Carolina 134
35 North Dakota 116
36 South Dakota 109
37 Oklahoma 100
38 Kansas 98
39 Arkansas 95
40 Tennessee 93
41 Texas 91
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 81
44 Utah 57
45 West Virginia 53
46 Idaho 52
47 Oregon 51
48 Puerto Rico 48
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 21
51 Alaska 19
52 Hawaii 13

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 3
2 Arizona 2
3 District of Columbia 2
4 Louisiana 2
5 Massachusetts 2
6 Mississippi 2
7 South Carolina 2
8 Alabama 1
9 Florida 1
10 Illinois 1
11 Indiana 1
12 Maryland 1
13 Nevada 1
14 New Hampshire 1
15 New Mexico 1
16 New York 1
17 Pennsylvania 1
18 Tennessee 1
19 Texas 1
20 Virginia 1
21 Alaska 0
22 Arkansas 0
23 California 0
24 Colorado 0
25 Connecticut 0
26 Delaware 0
27 Georgia 0
28 Hawaii 0
29 Idaho 0
30 Iowa 0
31 Kansas 0
32 Kentucky 0
33 Maine 0
34 Michigan 0
35 Minnesota 0
36 Missouri 0
37 Montana 0
38 Nebraska 0
39 North Carolina 0
40 North Dakota 0
41 Ohio 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Oregon 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 Rhode Island 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 132,754 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,632 2 99
Lee Arkansas 90,663 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 89,334 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 87,258 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 16,955 163 94
Richland South Carolina 9,926 448 85
Orange California 6,061 841 73
York South Carolina 5,278 980 68
Pierce Washington 3,480 1408 55

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 209 681 78
Davidson Tennessee 176 752 76
Pierce Washington 118 982 68
Orange California 114 1007 67
York South Carolina 43 1576 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons